Local Government and Environmental Affairs and Development Planning

The Western Cape is especially vulnerable to climate change, being a winter rainfall area, as opposed to the other provinces in the country that are summer rainfall areas. The vegetation and agricultural conditions are therefore largely unique to the Province, resulting in a particular climate vulnerability which in some respects is different to the rest of the country. In most cases these changes threaten to amplify existing vulnerability entrenched within the socio-economic inequality characteristic of South Africa.

 

The climate projections for this region indicate not only a warming trend as with the rest of the country, but also projected drying in many areas, with longer time periods between increasingly intense rainfall events. The latter is of particular concern to the already water stressed Province. These broad projections raise the risk profile of the Province which is already vulnerable to droughts, floods and fire, thus posing a significant service delivery challenge to the WCG and municipalities. In addition to this, the Western Cape is a coastal province, with a coastline spanning approximately 900km, leaving it vulnerable to storm surges and sea level rise.

 

Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG) at the University of Cape Town (UCT) modelled the impact of the expected climate change for the Western Cape for the 2030 - 2045 period. The following climate changes are projected.

 

 

Table presenting Climate change projections and examples of potential impacts for the Western Cape

Projection	Example of Possible Impacts
Higher mean annual temperature	 Increased evaporation and decreased water balance;  Increase wild fire danger (frequency and intensity).
Higher maximum temperatures, more hot days and more heat waves	 Heat stress on humans and livestock;  Increased incidence of heat-related illnesses;  Increased incidence of death and serious illness, particularly in older age groups;  Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife;  Decreased crop yields and rangeland productivity;  Extended range and activity of some pests and disease vectors;  Increased threat to infrastructure exceeding design specifications relating to temperature (e.g. traffic lights, road surfaces, electrical equipment, etc.);  Increased electric cooling demand increasing pressure on already stretched energy supply reliability ;  Exacerbation of urban heat island effect.
Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days	Decreased risk of damage to some crops and increased risk to others such as deciduous fruits that rely on cooling period in autumn;  Reduced heating energy demand;  Extended range and activity of some pests and disease vectors;  Reduced risk of cold-related deaths and illnesses
General drying trend in western part of the country	Decreased average runoff, stream flow;  Decreased water resources and potential increases in cost of water resources;  Decreased water quality;  Decrease in shoulder season length threatening the Western Cape fruit crops;  Increased fire danger (drying factor);  Impacts on rivers and wetland ecosystems.
Intensification of rainfall events	Increased flooding;  Increased challenge to storm water systems in urban settlements;  Increased soil erosion;  Increased river bank erosion and demands for protection structures ;  Increased pressure of disaster relief systems;  Increased risk to human lives and health;  Negative impact on agriculture such as lower productivity levels and loss of harvest.
Increased mean sea level and associated storm surges	Salt water intrusion into ground water and coastal wetlands;  Increased storm surges leading to coastal flooding, coastal erosion and damage to coastal infrastructure;  Increased impact on estuaries and associated impacts on fish and other marine species.

 

More specific to the questioned sectors -

The poorest communities tending to live in far flung and often marginal locations not suited for development, where services are either non-existent or of a poor quality. These communities are the most vulnerable to climate change, a problem set to continue with burgeoning informal settlements remaining a characteristic of most urban areas in South Africa. Informal settlements are particularly vulnerable to floods and fires, exacerbated by their location in flood-prone areas and on sand dunes, inferior building materials, close proximity to one another and inadequate road access for emergency vehicles. The WC population is characterised by a relatively high rate of unemployment, burgeoning informal settlements and high incidence of HIV/Aids and Tuberculosis, leaving many vulnerable to climate related hazards such as extreme events (characterised by floods and high winds, heat waves and cold snaps). The health related impacts associated with these kinds of events include heat stress, an increase in incidence of communicable diseases, and potential expansion of disease vectors.

 

Climate change poses a significant threat to this climate dependent sector, which in turn raises food security and employment concerns. The ability of the agricultural sector to ensure food security is closely affected by climate variability and change, which in turn affects water availability. There is growing recognition of the need for ‘climate smart agriculture’ which focusses on climate adaptation through building farmer’s climate resilience as well as improving livelihoods through poverty reduction. Need to continue to develop adaptive capacity within this climate sensitive sector.

 

Agriculture needs to be able to adapt to a changing climate and be ready to change if certain crops and livestock are no longer viable under changing conditions i.e alternative crops and livestock practices. Extensive research is being done on this issue by the National and Western Cape Departments of Agriculture e.g. SmartAgri, as well as by the various commodity research groupings.

 

The Western Cape is a water-stressed province in a water-stressed country, and with climate change projections pointing to a drying trend in the western half of the country, water security is a primary concern for the province. Water reserves are compromised by, among other, dense stands of invasive alien vegetation, particularly the Australian acacias and eucalypts with deep tap roots out-compete the local flora and utilise significantly more ground and river water than indigenous vegetation. In addition, dense stands in riparian zones compromise the functioning of rivers, both in times of ‘normal’ flow and particularly during times of flood. Agricultural activities utilize 55% of water used in the province. Improvements in water efficiency by this sector would therefore have a significant positive impact on the province’s water reserves.

 

The Western Cape is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change on health, livelihoods, water and food with a disproportionate impact on the poor, especially women and children. Taking action now will limit damages, loss of life, and costs over the coming decades and, if strategically well considered, will add to the Western Cape’s global competitive edge into the future.

 

More information can be obtained from the Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy which can be located at:

http://eadp-westerncape.kznsshf.gov.za/climate-change-municipal-support-forum/how-the-WCG-is-responding-to-climate-change